SPX price prediction: “no need to get negative”

The benchmark S&P 500 index is up 20% year-to-date, and JPMorgan says it will climb a bit further before the end of the year.

In a note on Wednesday, JPMorgan’s Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Dubravko Lakos raised his year-end price target on SPX to 4,700 that represents an about 5.0% upside from here.

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The momentum is likely to continue next year, with the benchmark index expected to hit 5,000 at some point in 2022, the analyst added.

Lakos’ remarks on CNBC’s “Halftime Report”

JPMorgan’s bullish call comes in contrast with Morgan Stanley and RBC that recently warned SPX could see an up to 10% correction in the upcoming months. Commenting on the ‘pessimism’, Lakos said on CNBC’s “Halftime Report”:

“I think it really comes down to COVID that has delayed the labour market recovery, hit consumer sentiment a little, and slowed broad-based economic and cycle data. But if pandemic-related restrictions ease in the coming weeks, we could go re-acceleration and potentially a much healthier holiday season.”

Other reasons why Lakos sees potential in SPX

Other reasons why the JPMorgan analyst sees upside in the S&P 500 index include a pending recovery in cross-border activity and tourism, inventory cycle at a 25-year low, and CAPEX cycle at post GFC low. Lakos added:

I think there’s no need to get negative on the cycle, no need to get negative on the consumer.

The equity strategist agreed that some parts of the market were not very exciting at the moment, but fixated on the reopening trades like cruise lines where the risk to reward ratio, he said, was “quite attractive”.