Categories: Invest

Is Aspen stock a good investment after crashing FQ1 estimates?

On Thursday, Aspen Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:AZPN) shares advanced 3.32% after announcing its most recent quarterly results. The company posted its fiscal-first quarter 2022 revenue and earnings Wednesday after markets closed, beating analyst expectations.

The company posted FQ1 2022 non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.77, surpassing the average for analyst estimates of $0.55. In addition, Aspen Technology’s GAAP EPS of $0.58 was slightly above the expectation of $0.55, while revenue for the quarter increased by 18.3% from the first quarter of the fiscal year 2021 to $136.02 million, $10.79 million ahead of estimates.

Is it safe to buy Aspen Technology shares?


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From an investment perspective, Aspen Technology shares spiked nearly 37% during the first two weeks of October, before pulling back 7.8%. As a result, the company’s P/E ratio has fallen to 32.17, making it a potential option for value investors.

In addition, analysts expect Aspen’s earnings per share to grow by nearly 40% this year, before rising at an average annual rate of 7.30% over the next five years. Therefore, the stock could also gain the attention of long-term investors.

Source – TradingView

Technically, Aspen Technology shares seem to be trading within a descending channel formation in the intraday chart. However, the stock bounced back on Thursday to rally towards the trendline resistance pushing it closer to overbought conditions.

Therefore, with shares far from reaching oversold conditions, investors could target extended pullbacks at about $150.62, or lower at $146.50.

On the other hand, if the rally continues, completing an upward breakout, the stock could find resistance at about $158.85, or higher at $162.61.

The pullback may not be over

In summary, although Aspen Technology shares trade at reasonable valuation multiples following the recent pullback, the stock is far from reaching oversold conditions, thus leaving room for more downward movement.

Therefore, whilst Aspen is slightly underperforming the S&P 500 Index this year, it may be best to wait for the stock to retest current support levels before buying.

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