Glencore share price: good fundamentals meet bad technicals

The Glencore (LON: GLEN) share price is bouncing back after the company published strong trading statement as commodity prices jump. It is trading at 478p, which is slightly above this week’s low of 462p.

Mining business is booming

The mining industry is seeing robust growth as commodity prices jump. The price of items like copper, coal, crude oil, and nickel has skyrocketed amid falling supplies and high demand. 

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As a result, mining investors have become rewarded substantially in the past few months. A look at most mining ETFs shows that they have outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.

Glencore is one of the most important mining companies around the world. It is a key oil trader that sells millions of barrels of oil every day. It is also a leading player in the coal business that has seen a strong revival as demand for energy rises. 

With the cost of natural gas skyrocketing, many power producers are now shifting to coal. Meanwhile, the prices of key commodities like nickel has risen sharply as demand for electric vehicles remain at elevated levels.

In a statement, Glencore said that it expects its first-half profit will be $3.2 billion. In contrast, for the full of 2021, the company’s profit was over $3.7 billion. The expected profit will be higher than the previous guidance of between $2.2 billion and $3.2 billion.

Still, the company is seeing some challenges in its coal business. In the statement, it warned that the sector’s volatility was soaring while its average coal price was lower than benchmark. At the same time, the cost of doing business is soaring. 

Still, these costs will likely be offset by the soaring prices and the fact that these prices will remain at elevated levels for longer.

Glencore share price forecast

The daily chart shows that the GLEN share price has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few months. This rebound saw its price soar to an all-time high of 550p. Still, the stock now remains slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved slightly below the neutral level.

Therefore, while Glencore’s fundamentals are strong, technicals are flashing danger since it has formed a double-top pattern. As such, a drop below this week’s low will signal that bears have prevailed. As such, we can’t rule out a situation where it keeps falling.

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